Original, independent, thought leadership
CoW12-05-202220221205

Are emerging market debt funds poised for a turnaround?

0:00 / 0:00

Share This Article:

The Bottom Line:  Sustainable and conventional emerging market debt funds are turning in one of the worst years on record, but conditions may be improving.

0:00 / 0:00

Performance (TR) of sustainable emerging market debt funds:  12-M to October 31, 2022Notes of Explanation:  BlackRock rebranded its two funds at the end of 2021.  Templeton Sustainable Emerging Markets Bond Fund rebranded in 2021.  Xtrackers JPMorgan ESG EM Sovereign ETF changed its underlying index effective May 12, 2020 to the JP Morgan ESG EMBI Global Diversified Sovereign Index from the Solactive USD Emerging Markets Bond – Interest Rate Hedged Index. Performance data source:  Morningstar Direct.  Research by Sustainable Research and Analysis.

Observations:

  • Sustainable emerging market debt funds are turning in what is widely expected to be one of the worst years on record for emerging markets.  The small universe, consisting of four mutual funds with 14 share classes and one ETF, for a combined total of $86.1 million in net assets, emphasizes investments in higher ESG scoring firms or sovereigns and/or momentum in improving ESG scores as well as exclusions and, in the case of BlackRlock, an additional focus on carbon emissions, posted an average return of -22.78.  Returns ranged from -20.22% to -28.25%, with the lowest returns attributable to higher levels of exposure to Russia and Ukraine, in particular, at the start of the year that were written down.  These results compared to -22.21% posted by the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Global Total Return Index and in line with the -21.1% trailing 12-month performance results recorded by conventional emerging market funds, including active and passively managed funds.  
  • Emerging market debt, which suffered five consecutive quarters of negative returns, was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and then fell sharply in the first half of the year. Investors reacted negatively to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the resulting impact on energy prices and global supply chains. Also, stubbornly high inflation prompted the Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates aggressively while repeated lockdowns in China have been weighing heavily on its economy.  These factors have affected returns across the entire bond market, with higher-risk categories experiencing the weakest performance.  Emerging markets are also potentially facing higher rates of default. 
  • Returns turned up in November.  Also, some firms have begun to raise their outlook for emerging market’s hard currency bonds based on the premise that a slowdown in U.S. rate hikes could provide some breathing space for the embattled asset class.  According to a Reuters report issued two weeks ago, JPMorgan raised its outlook for emerging market hard-currency debt to “marketweight” from “underweight.” Also, in its 2023 outlook Morgan Stanley predicted emerging market hard-currency bonds could return more than 14% next year.
  • That said, sustainable emerging market debt funds offer investors a very limited set of investment options.  The number of fund options is small and they are relatively new (while some funds have been in existence for some time, they have been rebranded in the last two years or so through the adoption of a sustainable investing strategy or index change), the average fund size is just $17.2 million as of October 31st and expense ratios for actively managed portfolios, an average of 1.06%, is high (but not any higher than conventional emerging market debt funds).  The only passively managed Xtrackers JPMorgan ESG Emerging Markets Sovereign ETF (ESEB), that charges 35 bps, was launched in 2015.  But the underlying index was swapped out in 2020 and the fund has only managed to attract $16.2 million.  At this time, a conventional actively managed emerging market debt fund may be the way forward for investors interested in dropping an anchor in this challenging environment.    
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
$99.99
PER YEAR

Premium Articles Access Priority Support 1 Fixed Price

Free Trial
30 Day

Access to All Data No Credit Card Required Cancel Any Time

9.99
Monthly

Access to Premium Articles Priority Support Save 25%


Sign up to free newsletters.


By submitting this form, you are consenting to receive marketing emails from: . You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by using the SafeUnsubscribe® link, found at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact

Research

Research and analysis to keep sustainable investors up to-date on a broad range of topics that include trends and developments in sustainable investing and sustainable finance, regulatory updates, performance results and considerations, investing through index funds and actively managed portfolios, asset allocation updates, expenses, ESG ratings and data, company and product news, green, social and sustainable bonds, green bond funds as well as reporting and disclosure practices, to name just a few.

A continuously updated Funds Directory is also available to investors.  This is intended to become a comprehensive listing of sustainable mutual funds, ETFs and other investment products along with a description of their sustainable investing approaches as set out in fund prospectuses and related regulatory filings.

Getting started

Many questions have surfaced in recent years regarding sustainable and ESG investing.  Here, investors and financial intermediaries will find materials that describe the various approaches to sustainable investing and their implementation.  While sustainable investing approaches vary and they have thus far defied universally accepted definitions, many practitioners agree that they fall into the following broad categories:  Values-based investing, investing via exclusions, impact investing, thematic investments and ESG integration.  In conjunction with each of these approaches, investors may also adopt various issuer engagement procedures and proxy voting practices.  That said, sustainable investing approaches will continue to evolve.

In addition to periodic updates regarding sustainable investing and how this form of investing is evolving, investors and financial intermediaries interested in implementing a sustainable investing approach will also find source materials that cover basic investing themes as well as asset allocation tactics.

Inesting ideas

Thoughts and ideas targeting sustainable investing strategies executed through various registered and non-registered sustainable investment funds and products such as mutual funds, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs), closed-end funds, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Unit Investment Trusts (UITs). Coverage extends to investment management firms as well as fund groups. 

Independent source for sustainable investment management company research, analysis, opinions and sustainable fund disclosure assessments